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  • AOP 2010
  • AOP 2011
  • AOP 2012

DET | Operating Plan 2010    (AOP10)

This is a page shows the Objectives and Accomplishments of the Ensemble Testbed for AOP10 ending February 28, 2011.

Objectives — AOP10

In response to the US NWS operational centers move toward ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting, the DTC established the DTC Ensemble Testbed to provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (NCEP and AFWA).

When fully developed, Ensemble Testbed activities will involve maintaining and supporting community codes, as well as conducting extensive testing and evaluation of promising new capabilities and techniques that have been incorporated into these community codes. DTC Annual Operating Plan 2010 (pdf).

Accomplishments — AOP10

Design Plan and Status

The table below reflects the modular infrastructure of the Ensemble Testbed ensemble system as well as allowing you to view details about the Design Plan and the Status of Basic Capabilities of the Ensemble Testbed.

 
Developing and Creating a Community Ensemble System
Element Design Plan Status Presentation
Overall Design Overview
pdf		 n/a Workshop
1 Ensemble Configuration Overview Basic Capability Workshop
2 Initial Perturbations Overview Basic Capability Workshop
3 Model Perturbations Overview n/a Workshop
4 Statistical Post-Processing Overview n/a Workshop
5 Ensemble Products Overview n/a Workshop
6 Verification Overview, Details n/a Workshop
Testing and Eval Overview n/a Workshop
Collaboration Overview n/a Workshop
WRF Working Group n/a n/a Workshop Report
As of February 2011 (for AOP10)

Activities and Documents

National Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction: Status and the Way Forward
› A white paper report from the National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction, 23-24 September 2009.

August 2010 DTC Ensemble Workshops: slides, recommendations, and responses
› DTC Ensemble Testbed Workshop Schedule and Presentations
› Breakout group discussions DET Working Group Recommendations DET Responses
› WRF Working Group Workshop Report

Start-up Allocation on Ranger through TeraGrid, Dec 2010
› Proposal "Development and Evaluation of a New Initialization Technique for Weather Forecasting Ensembles"
› TeraGrid User Portal allocation screen shot, ssh access screen shot, with more info available

AMS 26 January 2011 Abstract
› The DTC Ensemble Testbed: A New Testing and Evaluation Facility for Mesoscale Ensembles pdf

DET | Operating Plan 2011    (AOP11)

This is a page shows the Objectives and Accomplishments of the Ensemble Testbed for AOP11 ending February 29, 2012.

Objectives — AOP11

The DTC Science Advisory Board, assists the DTC Director in shaping the strategic direction and objectives for the DTC. In response to the DTC Science Advisory Board Governance, DTC Ensemble group is to provide an environment in which the NCEP Operational ensemble model (SREF) is established at the DTC for extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational center NCEP.

When fully developed, Ensemble Testbed activities will involve maintaining and supporting community codes, as well as conducting extensive testing and evaluation of promising new capabilities and techniques that have been incorporated into these community codes. DTC Annual Operating Plan 2011 (pdf).

Accomplishments — AOP11

The table below allows you to view details about the Ensemble Testbed accomplishments.

 
Implementing SREF at the DTC for Test & Eval
Element Status Figure
Overall Design Details, pdf image
1 Ensemble Configuration Details image
2 Initial & Lat Perturbations Details image
3 Model Perturbations n/a n/a
4 Stat Post-Processing n/a n/a
5 Ensemble Products Details image
6 Verification Details image
Testing and Eval n/a n/a
Collaboration Details n/a
GSI Hybrid for HWRF Details n/a
As of February 2012 (for AOP11)

DET: Activities and Documents

Start-up Allocation on Ranger through TeraGrid, Dec 2010
› Proposal "Development and Evaluation of a New Initialization Technique for Weather Forecasting Ensembles"
› TeraGrid User Portal allocation extended from 12/15/2011 through 6/15/2012

Collaborations
› 5th Ensemble User Workshop May 10-12, 2011, Laurel Maryland
› HFIP Connection — community regional initiative

DET | Operating Plan 2012    (AOP12)

This is a page shows the Objectives and Accomplishments of the Ensemble Testbed for AOP12 ending February 28, 2013.

Objectives — AOP12

The DTC Science Advisory Board, assists the DTC Director in shaping the strategic direction and objectives for the DTC. In response to the DTC Science Advisory Board Governance, the primary goal of this task in AOP 2012 is to provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (e.g., NCEP and AFWA). There are two ensemble systems that this task will focus on in AOP 2012: the NCE NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and a developmental Hurricane-WRF (HWRF) ensemble, on the 27km basin-scale domain. While work on the NCEP SREF will be focused on improved forecasting, work on the HWRF ensemble will be focused on its use as a component of a GSI-Hybrid data assimilation scheme.

When fully developed, Ensemble Testbed activities will involve maintaining and supporting community codes, as well as conducting extensive testing and evaluation of promising new capabilities and techniques that have been incorporated into these community codes. DTC Annual Operating Plan 2012 DTC Home page.

Anticipated Accomplishments — AOP12

 
Providing an Environment for Extensive Testing and Evaluation of Ensemble-related Techniques
Element Status
Community Software Systems
Functionally Equivalent Environment - NCEP SREF v6 n/a
Code Repository - HWRF Ensemble v1 n/a
Basic Capability - Initial and Model Perturbations n/a
2nd Mesoscale Ensemble Workshop n/a
Testing and Evaluation
Initial Perturbations - SREF v7 n/a
Model Perturvations - SREF v7 n/a
Initial Perturbations - HWRF Ensemble v1 n/a
Model Perturbations - HWRF Ensemble v1 n/a
As of March 2012 (for AOP12)

DET: Activities and Documents

Start-up Allocation on Ranger through TeraGrid, Dec 2010
› Proposal "Development and Evaluation of a New Initialization Technique for Weather Forecasting Ensembles"
› TeraGrid User Portal allocation extended from 12/15/2011 through 9/15/2012

Collaborations
› 2nd Mesocale Ensemble Workshop
Sept 2012, Boulder, Colorado
› HFIP Connection Community regional initiative