A brief status of the DTC Ensemble Testbed Module2
development: Initial and lateral boundary condition perturbations

An important part of a regional EPS configuration is a decision about the initial and lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations. In early stage of ensemble forecasting technique development, ensembles were designed based on perturbed initial conditions only, and the ensemble mean values were found to estimate the verifying state (usually large-scale circulations) better than the forecast from a single ensemble member. Today different centers use different approaches to this problem. DTC Ensemble Testbed is evaluating cycling as a method of initial perturbations. The images below show the concept and preliminary results, thus far.


  1.  


  2.  


  3.  


  4.  


  5.  


  6.  


  7.  


  8.  


  9.