RIRW Verification

RIRW Verification Executive Summary

• A benchmark for Rapid Intensification (RI) and Rapid Weakening (RW) was established for HWRF, COAMPS-TC and NHC forecasts.

• Overall, HWRF had difficulty representing RI, resulting in a high occurrence of misses and false alarms.

• HWRF demonstrated a tendency to underestimate intensity change when a RI occured. The same was true for COAMPS-TC and NHC official forecasts.

• Results revealed all models had more skill for prediction of RW events than of RI events.

• HWRF performs better for RI events in the WP basin than in the AL and EP basins.

• The HWRF model performs better for RI for the 2015 pre-implementation (H215) forecasts than the 2014 forecasts (HWRF-14).

• A full report of the study is available.