RIRW Verification

HWRF RIRW Verification WP basin

• The probability of detection and false alarm rate of RI events are 28.7% and 43.0% for HWRF forecasts.

RI Contingency tables

30kt in 24-h

Yes No
FCST Yes 94 71
No 233 4127

• The ABDEL distribution shows that the hits (green boxes) have little bias. However, the false alarms (red) and missed events (orange) are off by around 20 kt at the early lead times.

Click for larger image.

• The POD and FAR of RW events are 37.7% and 38.4%, respectively.

RW Contingency tables

-30kt in 24-h

Yes No
FCST Yes 235 147
No 388 3755