Case Description

Reason for interest: Hurricane event with huge fluctuation in intensity during the first 12 hours

This case of Hurricane Edouard (2014) was of interest because of extensive observations that were available to evaluate HWRF forecasts. The HWRF track were reasonable good, but due to possible initialization issues, the intensity forecast fluctuated severely in the first 12 hours.

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Loop showing storm relative Radar reflectivity of Hurricane Edouard (Image Courtesy: AOML)

Plot showing intensity forecast issues during the initial 12 h.