Codes Employed

The components of the end-to-end forecast system used for this test included:

    • WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) [v3.3.1]

    • WRF-NMM model [v3.3.1+ (rev 5255) ]

    • Unified Post Processor (UPP) [v1.0]

    • Model Evaluation Tools (MET) [v3.0.1 + patches] *Includes       PB2NC error described here

    • NCAR Command Language (NCL) for graphics generation

    • Statistical programming language, R, to compute confidence        intervals

Domain Configuration

    • Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) domain with ~15-km grid spacing

Click thumbnail for larger image.

    • 310 x 460 gridpoints, for a total of 142,600 horizontal gridpoints

    • 52 vertical levels (53 sigma entries); model top at 50 hPa

    • Rotated latitude-longitude map projection

Sample Namelists

    • namelist.wps

    • namelist.input

NAM Reference Configuration

Microphysics:	Ferrier (option 95) Scheme
Radiation (LW/SW):	GFDL/GFDL
Surface Layer:	Janjic Scheme
Land Surface:	Noah Land-Surface Model
PBL:	Mellor-Yamada-Janjic TKE Scheme
Convection:	Betts-Miller-Janjic Scheme

    • Sample namelist.input

Other run-time settings

    • Calls to the boundary layer and microphysics parameterization        were made every other time step
    • Calls to the cumulus parameterization were made every other        time step
    • Calls to radiation were made every 60 minutes

The end-to-end system for this test did not include a data assimilation component.

Initial and Boundary Conditions

    • Initial conditions (ICs) and Lateral Boundary Conditions
       (LBCs): 0.5° x 0.5° Global Forecast System (GFS) model

    • SST Initialization: Fleet Numerical Meteorology and        Oceanography Center (FNMOC) daily, real-time sea surface        temperature (SST) product

Cases Run

• Forecast Dates: 2 June 2008 - 31 May 2009

• Initializations: Every 36 hours, including both 00 and 12 UTC

• Forecast Length: 48 hours; output files generated every 3 hours

The tables below list the forecast initializations that failed to complete the end-to-end process due to the reasons described in the table. All incomplete forecasts were due to missing or bad input data sets, not model crashes.

Missing Forecasts:

Affected Case	Missing Data	Reason
2008071000	WRF Output	Missing SST Input Data
2008091512	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2008101512	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2008101700	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2008101812	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2008121112	WRF Output	Bas SST Input Data
2009040112	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2009042212	WRF Output	Bad SST Input Data
2009052400	WRF Output	Missing SST Input Data
2009052512	WRF Output	Missing SST Input Data

Missing Verification:

Affected Case	Missing Data	Reason
2008071300	Incomplete sfc and upper air verification (36-48h)	Missing Prepbufr data
2008071412	Incomplete sfc and upper air verification (00-21h)	Missing Prepbufr data
2008101400	Incomplete sfc and upper air verification (42-48h)	Missing Prepbufr data
2008110100	Incomplete 3-hr QPF verification (24-48h)	Missing ST2 analysis
2008110212	Incomplete 3-hr QPF verification (03-21h)	Missing ST2 analysis
2009012100	Incomplete sfc and upper air verification (18-21h)	Missing Prepbufr data
2009012700	Incomplete sfc and upper air verification (24-27h)	Missing Prepbufr data

Verification

The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, comprised of:

    • grid-to-point comparisons - utilized for surface and upper air        model data
    • grid-to-grid comparisons - utilized for QPF

was used to generate objective verification statistics, including:

    • Bias-corrected Root Mean Square Error (BCRMSE), Root Mean
       Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Error (Bias) for:
        • Surface: Temperature (2 m), Dew Point Temperature (2 m)            and Winds (10 m)
        • Upper Air: Temperature, Dew Point Temperature and Winds

    • Gilbert Skill Score (GSS) and Frequency Bias (FBias) for:
        • 3-hr and 24-hr Precipiation Accumulation intervals

Each type of verification metric is accompanied by confidence intervals (CIs), at the 99% level, computed using a parametric method for the surface and upper air variables and a boostrapping method for precipitation.

Area-averaged verification results were computed for the full domain, as well as 14 sub-domains.