WRFv3.6.1 ARW PS:4.4.4.7.7.7.1
WRFv3.6.1 ARW PS:4.4.4.7.7.7.1
- Code
- Domain
- Model
- Initialization
- Cases
- Verification
Codes Employed
The components of the end-to-end forecast system used for this test included:
• WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) (v3.6.1)
• Gridpoint Statistical Interpoloation (GSI) (v3.3)
• WRF-ARW Model (v3.6.1)
• Unified Post Processor (UPP) (v2.2)
• Model Evaluation Tools (MET) (v5.0)
• NCAR Command Language (NCL) for graphics generation
• Statistical programming language, R, to compute confidence
intervals
Domain Configuration
• Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) domain with 15-km grid spacing
Click thumbnail for larger image.
• 403 x 302 gridpoints, for a total of 121,706 horizontal gridpoints
• 56 vertical levels (57 sigma entries); model top at 10 hPa
Sample Namelists
AFWA Reference Configuration
Microphysics: | WRF Single-Moment 5-class Scheme (opt 4) |
Radiation (LW/SW): | RRTMG (opt 4) |
Surface Layer: | Pleim Xiu (opt 7) |
Land Surface: | Pleim Xiu (opt 7) |
PBL: | Asymmetric convective Model 2 (opt 7) |
Convection: | Kain-Fritsch Scheme (opt 1) |
• Sample namelist.input
Other run-time settings
• Long timestep = 90 s; Acoustic step = 4
• Calls to the boundary layer and microphysics parameterization
were made every time step
• Calls to the cumulus parameterization were made every 5
minutes
• Calls to radiation were made every 30 minutes
Updates since WRFv3.5 for AFWA RC physics options
• Full list of enhancements and bug fixes can be found at: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/wrfv3.6/updates-3.6.1.htmlInitial and Boundary Conditions
• Initial conditions (ICs) and Lateral Boundary Conditions
(LBCs): 0.5° x 0.5° Global Forecast System (GFS) model
• Lower Boundary Conditions (LoBCs): AFWA Land
Information System (LIS) utilizing the Noah land surface
model v2.7.1
• SST Initialization: Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
Oceanography Center (FNMOC) daily, real-time sea surface
temperature (SST) product
Preprocessing Component
The time-invariant component of the lower boundary conditions (topography, soil and vegetation type etc.), using United States Geological Survey (USGS) input data, was generated through the geogrid program of WPS. The avg_tsfc program of WPS was also used to compute the mean surface air temperature in order to provide improved water temperature initialization for lakes and smaller bodies of water in the domain that are further away from an ocean.
Data Assimilation Component
A 6-hour "warm start" spin-up procedure preceded each forecast (see figure below). Data assimilation was conducted using GSI at the beginning and the end of the 6-hour warm start window using observation data files provided by AFWA. At the beginning of the data assimilation window, the GFS derived initial conditions were used as the model background, and at the end of the window, the 6-hour WRF forecast initialized by the GSI analysis was used. After each GSI run, the LBCs derived from GFS were updated and used in the subsequent forecasts.
Click thumbnail for larger image.
Cases Run
• Forecast Dates: 1 August 2013 - 31 August 2014
• Initializations: Every 36 hours, including both 00 and 12 UTC
• Forecast Length: 48 hours; output files generated every 3 hours
00 UTC Initializations |
August 2013: 3, 6, 12, 15, 18, 24, 27, 30 |
September 2013: 2, 5, 8, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
October 2013: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
November 2013: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28 |
December 2013: 1, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25 |
January 2014: 3, 6, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
February 2014: 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26 |
March 2014: 1, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 |
April 2014: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
May 2014: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
June 2014: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17 |
July 2014: 17, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
August 2014: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 |
12 UTC Initializations |
August 2013: 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 22, 25, 28, 31 |
September 2013: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
October 2013: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
November 2013: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
December 2013: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23 |
January 2014: 4, 7, 13, 16, 19, 25, 28, 31 |
February 2014: 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27 |
March 2014: 2, 5, 8, 11, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
April 2014: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28 |
May 2014: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 |
June 2014: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15 |
July 2014: 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 |
August 2014: 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29 |
The tables below list the forecast initializations that failed to complete the end-to-end process due to the reasons described in the table. All incomplete forecasts were due to missing or bad input data sets, not model crashes.
Missing Forecasts:Affected Case | Missing Data | Reason |
2013080112 | WRF Output | Missing SST Input Data |
2013080900 | WRF Output | Missing GFS Input Data |
2013081912 | WRF Output | Missing GFS Input Data |
2013082100 | WRF Output | Missing GFS Input Data |
2013091100 | WRF Output | Missing Input Observation Data |
2013120400 | WRF Output | Bad SST Input Data |
2013122612 | WRF Output | Missing Input Observation Data |
2013122800 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2013122912 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2013123100 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014010112 | WRF Output | Missing SST Input Data |
2014010900 | WRF Output | Missing SST and LIS Input Data |
2014011012 | WRF Output | Missing SST and LIS Input Data |
2014012212 | WRF Output | Bad SST Input Data |
2014020200 | WRF Output | Missing GFS Input Data |
2014020312 | WRF Output | Missing GFS Input Data |
2014030400 | WRF Output | Missing LIS and Bad SST Input Data |
2014031412 | WRF Output | Missing LIS Input Data |
2014031712 | WRF Output | Bad SST Input Data |
2014041800 | WRF Output | Bad SST Input Data |
2014061812 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062000 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062112 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062300 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062412 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062600 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062712 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014062900 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014063012 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070200 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070312 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070500 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070612 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070800 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014070912 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014071100 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014071212 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014071400 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
2014071512 | WRF Output | Missing SST, LIS and Input Observation Data |
Missing Verification:
Affected Case | Missing Data | Reason |
Verification
The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, comprised of:
• grid-to-point comparisons - utilized for surface and upper air
model data
• grid-to-grid comparisons - utilized for QPF
was used to generate objective verification statistics, including:
• Bias-corrected Root Mean Square Error (BCRMSE), Root
Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Error (Bias) for:
• Surface: Temperature (2 m), Dew Point Temperature (2 m)
and Winds (10 m)
• Upper Air: Temperature, Dew Point Temperature and Winds
• Gilbert Skill Score (GSS) and Frequency Bias
(FBias) for:
• 3-hr and 24-hr Precipitation Accumulation intervals
Each type of verification metric is accompanied by confidence intervals (CIs), at the 99% level, computed using a parametric method for the surface and upper air variables and a boostrapping method for precipitation.
Area-averaged verification results were computed for the full and CONUS domains, East and West domains, and 14 sub-domains.