WRF v3.4

Executive Summary

  • Surface
  • Upper Air

Temperature

BCRMSE

    • A diurnal trend is noted in SS/PS pair-wise differences, with the largest number of SS pair-wise differences favoring LIS2 and occurring during the daytime hours and a few SS differences favoring LIS3 during the overnight hours; only one difference, however, is PS

Bias

    • All forecast lead times for all temporal aggregations and both initializations, have not only SS but PS pair-wise differences indicating LIS2 is the better performer

Dew Point Temperature

BCRMSE

    • A diurnal trend in which configuration is favored is noted, with LIS3 generally favored with SS pair-wise differences during times valid overnight/early morning and LIS2 typically performing better during times valid in the afternoon/early evening hour; overall, more SS pair-wise differences are seen favoring LIS3; however, all PS pair-wise differences favor LIS2 and are seen in the spring aggregation at hours valid between 21 - 00 UTC

Bias

    • When differences are noted, almost all as PS; LIS3 is generally favored during times valid overnight/early morning and LIS2 typically performing better at all other times; very few differences are seen in the fall and winter temporal aggregations

Wind

BCRMSE

    • SS pair-wise differences are generally seen at times valid between 15 - 00 UTC, with more seen during the 12 UTC initializations; all but two SS pair-wise differences favor LIS2, and no differences are PS

Bias

    • A number of SS pair-wise differences are noted between 15 - 00 UTC, regardless of initialization or temporal aggregation, and predominantly indicating LIS3 is a better performer; no PS pair-wise differences are observed

3-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • SS pair-wise differences are noted but are dependent on initialization, forecast lead time, and precipitation threshold, with most differences favoring LIS2 and seen during the 12 UTC initializations; the only SS pair-wise differences for the 00 UTC initializations are noted at the 1.00" threshold

Frequency Bias

    • No SS differences were noted

24-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • Several, scattered SS pair-wise differences observed, all favoring LIS2; a majority of the differences are seen at the 0.01" threshold

Frequency Bias

    • No SS differences were noted

Temperature

BCRMSE

    • LIS2 SS favored for all temporal aggregations and most lead times at and below 700 hPa; no PS differences were noted

Bias

    • Majority of SS/PS pair-wise differences show LIS2 as a better performer; the only PS pair-wise differences are at the 24 - 48 hour forecast lead times during the summer and spring aggregations, favoring LIS2

Dew Point Temperature

BCRMSE

    • All SS/PS pair-wise differences favor LIS2 and are seen predominantly during the annual, summer, and spring aggregations; PS pair-wise differences are seen in the summer and spring aggregations at and below 700 hPa

Bias

    • Most SS/PS pair-wise differences favor LIS3, with the most differences seen in the annual, winter, and spring aggregations; with exception to one PS pair-wise difference favoring LIS2 in the winter aggregation, all other PS pair-wise difference indicate LIS3 is the optimal performer

Wind

BCRMSE

    • Few SS pair-wise differences are observed, with all occurring at or below 500 hPa and with all but one favoring LIS2; none are PS

Bias

    • Few SS pair-wise differences are observed, with performance dependent on temporal aggregation, vertical level, and forecast lead hour; none are PS