WRF v3.1.1

Executive Summary

  • Surface
  • Upper Air

Temperature

BCRMSE

    • A number of PS pair-wise differences are noted, especially during the daytime hours, all favoring the AFWA configuration.

Bias

    • Regardless of initialization, temporal aggregation, and lead time, the AFWA configuration is a PS better performer than the QNSE configuration.

Dew Point Temperature

BCRMSE

    • The AFWA configuration is generally favored with PS during the daytime, though the winter aggregation has PS pair-wise differences at nearly all lead times; PS pair-wise differences favoring the QNSE configuration are occasionally seen during the overnight hours.

Bias

    • PS pair-wise differences seen during the daytime hours, generally favor the AFWA configuration, while the QNSE configuration is frequently favored at a PS level during the overnight hours; one exception is the winter aggregation, where all PS differences favor the QNSE configuration.

Wind

BCRMSE

    • For both initializations and all temporal aggregations, many SS pair-wise differences are seen, with nearly all favoring the AFWA configuration; however, none are PS.

Bias

    • A diurnal trend in which configuration is favored is noted, with the AFWA configuration typically performing better during times valid in the afternoon/early evening hour, while the QNSE configuration is generally favored during times valid overnight/early morning. Differences favoring the AFWA configuration are most always PS, less so for those favoring the QNSE configuration.

3-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • The AFWA configuration is an overwhelmingly favored, with differences occurring at an assortment of thresholds and lead times. The most differences occurring in the lowest thresholds; any differences favoring the QNSE configuration are seen at the highest threshold (1").

Frequency Bias

    • Any SS pair-wise differences that are present indicate the AFWA configuration as a better performer, with differences occurring at and below the 0.1" threshold for times valid at 00 UTC during the annual, summer, and spring aggregations.

24-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • A number of SS pair-wise differences occur at an assortment of thresholds and lead times, all indicating the AFWA configuration is the better performer; the largest number of differences is seen in the low-to-middlemiddle thresholds.

Frequency Bias

    • Only a few pair-wise differences are noted, all favoring the AFWA configuration and occurring during the annual and summer aggregations for the 0.25" threshold and below.

Temperature

BCRMSE

    • The AFWA configuration is SS favored at and below 400 hPa and at and above 150 hPa, with a number of PS pair-wise differences seen at the 850 and 700 hPa levels. The QNSE configuration is generally SS favored at the 300 and 200 hPa levels for all temporal aggregations except winter.

Bias

    • With exception to the winter aggregation, the QNSE configuration displays many SS pair-wise differences from 850 - 700 hPa and at and above 200 hPa. The AFWA configuration is generally favored from 500 - 300 hPa. Regardless of level, most PS pair-wise differences are seen for the summer aggregation.

Dew Point Temperature

BCRMSE

    • The AFWA configuration is favored at nearly all vertical levels and lead times for all temporal aggregations; all pair-wise differences are PS.

Bias

    • With exception to the summer aggregation, the QNSE configuration is persistently the better performer at all vertical levels and lead times, with most pair-wise differences being PS; the favored configuration in the summer aggregation is dependent on vertical level and lead time, but all pair-wise differences are PS.

Wind

BCRMSE

    • For all vertical levels, lead times, and temporal aggregations, a number of SS pair-wise differences are present, all favoring the AFWA configuration, with the summer aggregation having the least amount of differences.

Bias

    • At 850 hPa, regardless of temporal aggregation or lead time, the AFWA configuration is favored, with most pair-wise differences being PS. Above 500 hPa, many SS pair-wise differences are noted, with all but a few favoring the QNSE configuration.