WRF v3.1.1

Executive Summary

  • Surface
  • Upper Air

Temperature

BCRMSE

    • A number of PS pair-wise differences are noted, especially during the daytime hours, all favoring the AFWA configuration.

Bias

    • Regardless of initialization, temporal aggregation, and lead time, the AFWA configuration is a PS better performer than the QNSE configuration.

Dew Point Temperature

BCRMSE

    • The AFWA configuration is generally favored with PS during the daytime, though the winter aggregation has PS pair-wise differences at nearly all lead times; PS pair-wise differences favoring the QNSE configuration are occasionally seen during the overnight hours.

Bias

    • PS pair-wise differences seen during the daytime hours, generally favor the AFWA configuration, while the QNSE configuration is frequently favored at a PS level during the overnight hours; one exception is the winter aggregation, where all PS differences favor the QNSE configuration.

Wind

BCRMSE

    • For both initializations and all temporal aggregations, many SS pair-wise differences are seen, with nearly all favoring the AFWA configuration; however, none are PS.

Bias

    • A diurnal trend in which configuration is favored is noted, with the AFWA configuration typically performing better during times valid in the afternoon/early evening hour, while the QNSE configuration is generally favored during times valid overnight/early morning. Differences favoring the AFWA configuration are most always PS, less so for those favoring the QNSE configuration.

3-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • The AFWA configuration is an overwhelmingly favored, with differences occurring at an assortment of thresholds and lead times. The most differences occurring in the lowest thresholds; any differences favoring the QNSE configuration are seen at the highest threshold (1").

Frequency Bias

    • Any SS pair-wise differences that are present indicate the AFWA configuration as a better performer, with differences occurring at and below the 0.1" threshold for times valid at 00 UTC during the annual, summer, and spring aggregations.

24-hour Precipitation Accumulation

GSS

    • A number of SS pair-wise differences occur at an assortment of thresholds and lead times, all indicating the AFWA configuration is the better performer; the largest number of differences is seen in the low-to-middlemiddle thresholds.

Frequency Bias

    • Only a few pair-wise differences are noted, all favoring the AFWA configuration and occurring during the annual and summer aggregations for the 0.25" threshold and below.