Advanced Physics Testing

Tropical Cyclones


Existing tropical cyclones (TCs) were tracked for all basins, and the resulting 5-day forecasts of track, intensity, and size of storms were verified against the Best Tracks. The track errors from Suites 1 and 2 are similar and lowest of all suites. Suite 3 has the largest errors, especially later in the forecast.

        

All suites have negative errors of TC intensity, which is not uncommon for the model resolution (~13km) used in this test. However, the negative bias is the smallest in Suite 1 but largest in Suite 4.