Ensembles

As operational centers move towards ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting, it was critical for the DTC to expand its efforts into this area in order to continue to serve as a bridge between research and operations. Hence, the DTC expanded its testing and evaluation activities to include ensemble systems in 2010. The DTC currently focuses its ensemble testing and evaluation activities on mesoscale ensemble prediction. The goal of this task area is to provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (e.g., NCEP/EMC and AFWA). The new and innovative ensemble modeling techniques tested and evaluated by the DTC can originate from universities, other testbeds that focus on specific research topics, and research and development wings of other agencies. Planning and execution of the ensemble testing and evaluation activities is closely coordinated with the operational centers. While case studies can provide important information, the majority of DTC ensembles testing and evaluation activities focus on extended retrospective periods. These tests apply appropriate verification metrics for ensemble systems, including the assessment of statistical significance.

Publications

Coming Soon!

Primary Contact

• Jankov, Isidora | ph: 303.497.4919 | email: Isidora.Jankov@noaa.gov

Team

Scientists

• Beck, Jeff | ph: 303.497.3278 | email: Jeff.Beck@noaa.gov
• Dudhia, Jimy | ph: 303.497.8950 | email: dudhia@ucar.edu
• Firl, Grant | ph: 303.497.2872 | email: grantf@ucar.edu
• Fossell, Kate | ph: 303.497.8967 | email: fossell@ucar.edu
• Fowler, Tressa | ph: 303.497.2859 | email: tressa@ucar.edu
• Harrold, Michelle | ph: 303.497.8978 | email: harrold@ucar.edu
• Hertneky, Tracy | ph: 303.497.2635 | email: hertneky@ucar.edu
• Ketefian, Gerard | ph: 303.497.6097 | email: gerard.ketefian@noaa.gov
• Thompson, Greg | ph: 303.497.2805 | email: gthompsn@ucar.edu
• Wang, Wei | ph: 303.497.8919 | email: weiwang@ucar.edu
• Williams, Christopher | ph: 303.497.8432 | email: cwill@ucar.edu
• Wolff, Jamie | ph: 303.497.2812 | email: jwolff@ucar.edu
• Wong, Ka Yee | ph: 303.497.5035 | email: kayee.wong@noaa.gov

Software Engineers

• Burek, Tatiana | ph: 303.497.1824 | email: tatiana@ucar.edu
• Carson, Laurie | ph: 303.497. 8408 | email: carson@ucar.edu
• Gill, Dave | ph: 303.497.8162 | email: gill@ucar.edu
• Halley Gotway, John | ph: 303.497.2861 | email: johnhg@ucar.edu